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 The Roll Method

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Nobelie
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PostSubject: The Roll Method   04/08/13, 08:27 pm

Okay,I'll just go ahead and copy-paste the whole thing from Tumblr cuz I'm lazy like that. xD Here goes:

Ok.
People tell me I’m superstitious.  But I’m a superstitious person with 6 full sets of socketed gear that I lost a minimal amount of stones into.So if you’re about to start raging about your latest piece not taking stones consider trying this.  I will say it’s not as easy as it sounds and it does require attention and patience.
First - Go home or somewhere away from people.  You’re going to be /roll’ing a bunch of times and I’m not telling you how to do this so you can be a menace to your peers.
Are you home? 
*stern face* 
*long look*
Ok .. good.
Now what you’ll do is begin rolling by typing "/roll".  I just copy and paste it as you’re going to be doing it a LOT.  Many of your activities in game are connected to RNG.  Socketing and your rolls for loot are two of them.  The purpose of rolling a ton of times is to see what your current RNG is and use that information to socket your gear effectively.What do the rolls mean?
55 and lower = fail.  Will break and not socket.
56 and higher = success.  Will go into gear.
This is where the rolling comes. Sometimes it takes a large number of rolls to decipher your pattern.  For exmple if you are rolling and you notice it consistently gives you 2 fails then a success, you can continue rolling, see the fails, then socket your manastone in place of the successful roll.Myself I prefer to roll until I see 6 fails in a row.The 7th failed roll is very rare so it’s safe to assume when you have rolled and see 6 times in a row where you would have failed, the next one is bound to be a success.[EDIT:This no longer seems to be working.If you want to be more sure about the socketing,try to figure out the patterns,like I do because there *are* patterns even if barely seen.The most common is f,s,f,s,f,s....or s,s,s,s,f and vica versa.Good luck!]
This strategy has worked exceptionally well for me.  I have socketed everything from pve to pvp, 5 to 6 slot using the roll method.Everyone I tell about it says I’m crazy.  Then they try itThen they say thank you :)So good luck.
Remember this is not superstition, it’s playing statistics and giving yourself the best chance for success.  if you decided to roll 5 times, fail and then send me a grumpy letter, don’t bother Wink It takes practice to perfect this strategy.In the end you’ll have less rage and spend a lot less on Manastones. 

Have fun!
(written by: Sweetzerlandia)


Last edited by Nobelie on 25/09/13, 07:07 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Kassidiy
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   05/08/13, 09:38 am

I'm going to try this on my ranger o.o
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ReylandAZ
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   05/08/13, 09:50 am

Kassidiy wrote:
I'm going to try this on my ranger o.o
Ranger..RNGer..pretty appropriate Razz

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Nobelie
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   05/08/13, 11:47 am

Polished the text up a bit since I posted this from my phone yesterday night. ^^"

Vanland wrote:
Ranger..RNGer..pretty appropriate
I lol'd.

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Taullus
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   14/09/13, 02:56 pm

Hmm ok I'll try that ... would be a great method if it's work ...

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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   14/09/13, 03:46 pm

The RNG was further lowered with one of the recent patches. Its a suspicion I had and was confirmed when I failed to socket the first manastone slot 6(!) times in a row on several occasions. Others also speak of a drastic decrease in luck. Possibly to boost the supplement sales.

The roll method still works, but you now can (and will) fail way more often with it. ie. pre-patch: 6 fails > socket on 7th = 95% chance. now: 6 fails > socket on 75th = ~75% chance.

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Kassidiy
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   14/09/13, 05:46 pm

What I noticed was an increase in rolling low numbers (up to and including 55). If before I got 6-7 wins in a row and only 3-4 fails now it's the other way around. Yes, it still works but you need to be extra careful. Also, if you get 2 wins in a row, third one is a fail but if you get 2 wins in a row the second time, most likely the third one will be a win. Again you need to be careful... and lucky!
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   17/09/13, 09:56 pm

8 fails in a row, 10 fails in a row..this system is useless now. Just saying. They fixed the RNG in such a way that roll method no longer works.

Rather have +0 unsocketed guns than spending even 1 penny on this game.

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Taullus
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   18/09/13, 08:45 pm

well what can I say I did manage to enchant my orb to +15 yesturday using this method without supplements and spent some kinah to buy more stones than I finaly used but was ok the rest of the stones I sell it back to broker. So worked for me ... I'll try to do it on my sword for my temp ...

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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   19/09/13, 02:59 am

First let me to congratulate you on your +15 orb. Smile
Second let me advise you to visit that page:

Fallacy Files

As there are no random computer generated numbers, same input will always gives you same number, it is safe to assume that RNG in Aion is fair. Fair means that there is no correlation between subsequent results.

regards
Qbecks.

P.S. I've learned it hard way in age of 18 as I tried to use this method in casino. I got wiser for 300 euro - fair enough: I could try it later with bigger money otherwise. Smile
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Taullus
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   19/09/13, 07:17 pm

Ty for congrants xD !!
Ok but along with this roll method we have to take in consideration and 1 big aspect : the LUCK.
Yes is 50% "knowledge" (/roll) and 50% luck, you have to ... kinda anticipate what's comming. I always use this in my real life also and I got good results so far. And yes experience makes the diference ... I don't say i rely on luck all the time but I take that aspect in consideration.

Luck is a part of our lifes even if we like it or not but we have to stay sharp and not to depend on it.

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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   20/09/13, 03:56 am

The point is, there is no 'knowledge' involved in rolling, only luck. You can't anticipate the results.

It easy to demonstrate, let us toss a coin 2 times (H=head, T=tail). 4 Possible outcomes are:

HH, HT, TH, TT
All of them have equal probability of 25% (1/2^2 = 1/4). Let us toss a coin one more time so 8 possible outcomes are:

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
All of them have equal chance to happen 12,5% (1/2^3 = 1/8 ). We can play it few more times (let it be 10), but every time all possible outcomes have same probability so:

HHH HHH HHH H has same probability as HHH HHH HHH T ~0,0977% (1/2^10 = 1/1024)
Both of them (10 heads or 9 heads and tail) have equal chance to happen. No matter how many heads in row you toss, at next toss you have equal chance to get head or tail.

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Taullus
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PostSubject: Re: The Roll Method   23/09/13, 07:38 am

Yeah math and luck ... worst combination ever ... lol

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